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Projecting Urban Growth Using SAM-IMMaricopa Association of Governments (MAG) |
State & Local Government |
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Phoenix, Arizona, USA
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A Subarea Allocation Model and Information Manager (SAM-IM) has been developed to project residences, employment, and special population groups by more than 1,500 traffic analysis zones (TAZ) for the Phoenix metropolitan area. The Maricopa Association of Government (MAG) uses the TAZ forecast for 2000-2020 for regional transportation and environmental and human services planning. SAM-IM can also be used to design and evaluate alternative land use scenarios. Planners can interactively alter land use polygons and assess the impact on jobs/housing balance, infill, and urban form. SAM-IM predicts future growth and urbanization by simulating development. The allocation mechanism evaluates the suitability of land to absorb development and chooses the most appropriate sites in conformance with general plans and development constraints. Data from the 2000 U.S. census and MAG's local GIS and database collection and review process will be used by SAM-IM to prepare the next set of TAZ projections for the MAG region during 2002. This map displays land use changes as modeled by SAM-IM for a test scenario for population and employment growth between 2000 and 2040 in the Phoenix metropolitan area. |
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