Where Have All the Children Gone?

The Population Research Center at Portland State University was asked by the Portland Public School District to explain why enrollments had increased only negligibly during the 1990s when more than 14,000 new housing units were built in the district. A "decomposition" type model was constructed that estimated school enrollment as the product of the number of housing units multiplied times several factors: (1) percent occupancy, (2) percent households with children, (3) the average number of children in each household with children, (4) the percentage of those aged 0–18 who were school age, and (5) the public school capture rate. The model was estimated for 2000, and 1990 values were inserted one at a time to assess their impact on estimated enrollment.

Two graphs show that for the overall district the increase in the number of housing units was countered by fewer households with children, fewer children in those households, and a decline in the public school capture rate. A graph for the Jefferson High attendance area shows that enrollments were driven downward because only a few new housing units were built, there were fewer households with children, and there were fewer children in these households.

The Households With Children map shows steep declines in the proportion of households with school-age children in the inner core of the district, but some gains occurred where new housing was built or minority populations grew. The Capture Rates map shows that increasing numbers of children were lost to private schools in more affluent areas of the district. On the 2000–1990 maps, gains are shown in red and losses in blue.