Patronage Probability Progression, Houston 2000–2004

These maps illustrate how expansion affected market coverage and patronage probability in the Houston area during the five years between 2000 and 2004. Patronage probability is the percent chance that a consumer living in a given area will purchase from the nearest store. In these maps, the trade area owned by a particular location is delineated by showing the maximum probability that consumers will shop at that store. When looking at the maps, one can see a continuing reduction in the probabilities over time. As stores are clustered closer together, there is less likelihood that a customer will choose the one closest to him or her. By understanding the interaction between stores, the client could address issues relating to store performance and potential cannibalization.

Patronage probability was generated using a spatial interaction model in Geonetx for ArcGIS. The resultant data was converted into a density map using ArcGIS Spatial Analyst and contoured in ArcGIS 3D Analyst.