{"id":156032,"date":"2018-11-13T10:13:27","date_gmt":"2018-11-13T18:13:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/about\/newsroom\/?post_type=arcwatch&p=156032"},"modified":"2021-09-01T21:22:40","modified_gmt":"2021-09-02T04:22:40","slug":"measuring-and-mapping-sources-sinks-of-co2-in-the-atmosphere","status":"publish","type":"arcwatch","link":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/about\/newsroom\/arcwatch\/measuring-and-mapping-sources-sinks-of-co2-in-the-atmosphere","title":{"rendered":"Measuring and Mapping Sources, Sinks of CO2 in the Atmosphere"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":651,"featured_media":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"sync_status":"","episode_type":"","audio_file":"","castos_file_data":"","podmotor_file_id":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","filesize_raw":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","itunes_episode_number":"","itunes_title":"","itunes_season_number":"","itunes_episode_type":"","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[10952],"tags":[279122,157952,209772,441,271],"arcwatch_issues":[170322],"class_list":["post-156032","arcwatch","type-arcwatch","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-geodesign-summit","tag-climate","tag-environment","tag-esri","tag-geodesign","tag-mapping","arcwatch_issues-august-2015"],"acf":{"short_description":"Noel Cressie, an expert in spatial and spatiotemporal statistics, describes his work analyzing climate models and assisting a team at the...","pdf":{"host_remotely":false,"file":"","file_url":""},"flexible_content":[{"acf_fc_layout":"image","image":139102,"image_position":"right","orientation":"horizontal","hyperlink":""},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":"Just over a year ago, a rocket carrying NASA's\u00a0Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2<\/a>\u00a0(OCO-2) satellite launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The mission: measure carbon dioxide (CO2<\/sub>) in the earth's atmosphere. This will help scientists create a more accurate, global picture of the sources of CO2<\/sub>\u2014 where it's produced\u2014and the sinks\u2014where it's absorbed.\r\n\r\nNoel Cressie, keynote speaker at the 2015\u00a0Geodesign Summit<\/a>\u00a0and an expert in spatial and spatio-temporal statistics, serves on OCO-2's science team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California. He is one of the people who will help make sense of the data that's being beamed back to JPL from a sensitive\u00a0instrument<\/a>\u00a0on OCO-2 that, according to JPL's website, measures \"the intensity of the sunlight reflected from the presence of CO2<\/sub>\u00a0in a column of air.\"\r\n\r\n\"This is\u00a0big data<\/em>,\" said Cressie, a distinguished professor at the National Institute for Applied Statistics Research Australia (NIASRA) at the University of Wollongong (UOW) in Australia and a distinguished visiting scientist at JPL. The OCO-2 data will be transformed into digital maps that will show the CO2<\/sub>\u00a0sources and sinks and how they change over seasons, he said. (See the\u00a0first maps<\/a>created from mission data collected last fall.)\r\n\r\nBecause of global-warming concerns, scientists and the public want to learn more about how much CO2<\/sub>\u2014a greenhouse gas that can cause a rise in global temperatures\u2014is in our atmosphere. They also want to learn where it comes from; where it's geographically distributed over time; and where it's absorbed, which is referred to as\u00a0CO2<\/sub>\u00a0flux<\/em>.\r\n\r\nA Princeton University graduate, Cressie wrote the classic textbook\u00a0Statistics for Spatial Data<\/em><\/a>\u00a0and coauthored, with Christopher K. Wikle, the award-winning book\u00a0Statistics for Spatio-Temporal Data<\/em><\/a>.\r\n\r\nCressie sat down with Esri writer Carla Wheeler to discuss his work on the OCO-2 mission and about how probability calculations play an important role in studying and better understanding climate-related data. Here are some excerpts from the interview:\r\n\r\nWheeler:<\/strong>\u00a0Tell me a little about yourself.\r\n\r\nCressie:<\/strong>\u00a0I was at Ohio State University up until about two years ago. The University of Wollongong\u2014 which is an excellent university located 50 miles south of Sydney\u2014and ranked among the\u00a0top two percent worldwide<\/a>\u2014offered me a research position with an opportunity to build a team in spatial and spatio-temporal statistics and, more broadly, in studies of the environment. I've had an interest in environmental informatics for a long time."},{"acf_fc_layout":"image","image":139112,"image_position":"right","orientation":"horizontal","hyperlink":""},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":"Wheeler:<\/strong>\u00a0Why are you so passionate about environmental research?\r\n\r\nCressie:<\/strong>\u00a0I think we can make a difference in how we treat and improve our environment. My general feeling is, if you can't measure it, you can't manage it. The measurement process automatically involves statistics. And because the environment is so spatial and so map-oriented, it quite naturally leads into spatial statistics. And because the environment is dynamic and evolves, quite naturally it leads into spatio-temporal statistics.\r\n\r\nWheeler:<\/strong>\u00a0During your presentation at the Geodesign Summit, you spoke about a warmer, drier climate in the future. What do you expect will happen to our climate toward the end of this century?\r\n\r\nCressie:<\/strong>\u00a0I am, of course, worried about how things will work out for the planet and those who live on it. On the other side of things, I am a scientist. So one tries to be dispassionate about the future and simply present the facts. And the facts might be good news or they might be bad news. The work that I've done that didn't come up during my Geodesign Summit keynote was on analyzing regional climate models. Climate models try to take you from the present into the future. So climate models will give you future temperature and future rainfall and that type of thing. And generally speaking, if you are in a hotter world, you are in a drier world with more droughts.\r\n\r\nWheeler:<\/strong>\u00a0Tell me about some of your work analyzing climate models.\r\n\r\nCressie:<\/strong>\u00a0I've analyzed, from a spatial statistical point of view, the\u00a0North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program<\/a>\u00a0[NARCCAP] data from the National Center for Atmospheric Research [NCAR] in Boulder, Colorado. NCAR brought together a number of international teams, each of which built a regional climate model for North America at a 50-kilometer resolution. Physicists and climate scientists use the laws of physics to allow us to crystal-ball gaze into the future. Generally speaking, climate scientists believe that we can sustain our way of living if warming is held to [an average of] two degrees Celsius beyond pre-industrial levels.\r\n\r\nWe are already a bit behind the eight ball because, since the Industrial Revolution, on average, we've warmed on the order of .5 to .7 degrees Celsius. So we only have 1.3 to 1.5 degrees Celsius to go.\r\n\r\nThe two-degree sustainability limit is coming at us quite fast. What the NARCCAP models showed consistently\u2014all of them\u2014is that there are many, many areas of North America that will warm on the order of three to five degrees Celsius by 2070. At that point, there will clearly have to be some mitigation, and our society will have to adapt. In general, higher temperatures mean less rainfall, and we may not get the yields that we need from crops. Flora and fauna will move. For example, the natural seeding of trees will move them to different bioclimates. Other species may become extinct. Probably the best example that most people think of is the melting of sea ice in the northern polar region that's also impacting Alaska and Greenland. The ice is thinner, and that affects the polar bears' habitat. It is an endangered species because of warmer temperatures and, hence, thinner ice."},{"acf_fc_layout":"image","image":139122,"image_position":"right","orientation":"horizontal","hyperlink":""},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":"Wheeler:<\/strong>\u00a0You then created some maps that projected where temperatures will be higher in the future in North America?\r\n\r\nCressie:<\/strong>\u00a0What I've done using spatial statistics is make some quantitative summaries of regional temperature changes that project into the future decades from 2040 to 2070. We are able to take three to four million surface-temperature outputs and come up with maps and summaries using data-dimension-reduction techniques that offer ways to analyze big spatial and spatio-temporal data.\r\n\r\nWheeler:<\/strong>\u00a0Do you look at what happened in the past to model the future?\r\n\r\nCressie:<\/strong>\u00a0Yes, the climate models are run from 1970 to 2000 to get a baseline. Then they are run from 2040 to 2070. In my geodesign presentation, I showed CO2<\/sub>fluxes, which are differences in time. This work I did on North American regional climate models also looks at time differences between the future period and the baseline. Using spatial statistics, I calculated that two-thirds of the North American region had a 97.5 percent probability of its temperature increasing by more than two degrees Celsius.\r\n\r\nWheeler:<\/strong>\u00a0Why is using probabilities so important?\r\n\r\nCressie:<\/strong>\u00a0We don't know the future. It's notoriously hard to predict! We don't even know the present. We have data on the present, but we, as a society, don't have sensors out there collecting data about absolutely everything. So we have missing data. The data we do have has measurement error associated with it. And the data we do have is sometimes aggregated to levels that our sensors can measure, such as for remote sensing<\/a>. We often want to make decisions about what's happening at spatial scales that are different than those of our measurements. So we run into issues of knowing what we want but having imperfect measurements of them. And that's in the present. For the future, we have projections approximated by the laws of physics but no data. So uncertainty hits you in the present and the future\u2014not only not having the information on the processes that you want but having imperfect looks at them.\r\n\r\nWheeler:<\/strong>\u00a0So you can fill in the blanks or quantify uncertainties using math?"},{"acf_fc_layout":"image","image":139132,"image_position":"right","orientation":"horizontal","hyperlink":""},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":"Cressie:<\/strong>\u00a0Yes, using statistical inference based on math and, in this study, based on physics.\r\n\r\nWheeler:<\/strong>\u00a0Tell me about the OCO-2 mission that launched July 2, 2014. How does the instrument that measures CO2<\/sub>\u00a0work? I understand it indirectly measures carbon dioxide by measuring the intensity of sunlight that is reflected from the CO2<\/sub>\u00a0molecules that are present in the atmosphere.\r\n\r\nCressie:<\/strong>\u00a0We are used to the part of the spectrum that we see\u2014the images, the color that goes from red through violet. On the red side, the stuff we can't see is called\u00a0infrared<\/em>, and on the other side, it is called\u00a0ultraviolet<\/em>. There are parts of the spectrum that are not visible but are sensitive to oxygen and to carbon dioxide. The instrument measures radiation reflected from the earth's surface through a column to the satellite, and the energies absorbed in these parts of the spectrum effectively give a count of the number of oxygen molecules and the number of carbon dioxide molecules in the column.\r\n\r\nThe satellite's instrument takes readings of radiances, or energies. For a single sounding, it's measuring about 3,000 radiances, or energy amounts, in those sensitive parts of the spectrum, and these are used in the algorithm that retrieves the carbon dioxide values in units of parts per million.\r\n\r\nWheeler:<\/strong>\u00a0What is your role on the OCO-2 science team?\r\n\r\nCressie:<\/strong>\u00a0With other statisticians and with geophysicists, I'm involved in the algorithms that convert these radiances into total column carbon dioxide [in parts per million] between the earth and the satellite and then into CO2<\/sub>\u00a0fluxes at the earth's surface. These estimates have uncertainties that we quantify statistically. The satellite orbits about 700 kilometers above the earth's surface and the trajectory is from pole to pole. There are 14 orbits per day, and complete coverage is achieved in 16 days. The instrument is passive and only takes readings during the daylight hours. So for half of its cycle, it is not sensing.\r\n\r\nWhile it's a wonderful instrument, even under perfect conditions, there will be measurement error. It looks straight down but can be tilted to target a location or get maximum reflectance of energy from the surface of the ocean. Generally speaking, the data locations of the satellite are tracing out ribbons that are actually quite thin. That means between one ribbon and the ribbon next to it, there are probably about 150 kilometers where there is no data at all.\r\n\r\nWheeler:<\/strong>\u00a0Tell me more about CO2<\/sub>\u00a0sources and sinks, meaning the fluxes.\r\n\r\nCressie:<\/strong>\u00a0Some are natural, and some are caused by humans. For example, after the farmers have harvested their crops, they plow their fields. That will release carbon dioxide from the soil into the atmosphere\u2014that's a source. When plants are growing, those plants take up carbon dioxide\u2014that's a sink. The Amazon jungle is one of the larger sinks in the world\u2014some people call it the lungs of the earth\u2014it sucks up all this bad stuff. When you start to burn off the Amazon jungle, two things happen: you are decreasing the size of the sink and you are turning that sink into a source because all that burning introduces carbon stored in the wood into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. A very large sink is the oceans. The oceans tend to take up carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. However, it makes them more acidic and usually results in their becoming warmer, so there's the potential to kill coral and other important species within the marine ecosystem."},{"acf_fc_layout":"image","image":139142,"image_position":"right","orientation":"horizontal","hyperlink":""},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":"Wheeler:<\/strong>\u00a0How does mapping play a role in how the OCO-2 data will be presented to the public?\r\n\r\nCressie:<\/strong>\u00a0JPL has produced\u00a0a map<\/a>\u00a0using some spatial statistical technology called\u00a0kriging<\/em>. Maps\u2014 particularly dynamic maps\u2014allow us to understand the carbon cycle better. Where are the borders of the regions\u2014during the different seasons\u2014of the sources and sinks? Some parts of the earth at different times will be a source and at other times will be a sink. We would like to understand the conveyor belt of carbon dioxide through sources and sinks so we can project climate into the future. We can introduce carbon dioxide through systems models, run it through the carbon cycle and see what effect that will have on temperature change. It might actually be better or worse in different regions, but generally speaking, Earth's temperatures will increase.\r\n\r\nWheeler:<\/strong>\u00a0In a map posted on the OCO-2 website that shows time-averaged carbon dioxide concentration between October 1 and November 11, 2014, there seem to be CO2<\/sub>\u00a0concentrations over South Africa, Java, China, and South America.\r\n\r\nCressie:<\/strong>\u00a0The high CO2<\/sub>\u00a0levels are probably due to the burning of savannas and forests. As I mentioned before, these things are seasonal. The maps produced in the future will be much better than these early snapshots, as the OCO-2 data used was preliminary.\r\n\r\nThe eventual goal is to come up with maps of the CO2<\/sub>\u00a0fluxes at the earth's surface, which basically tell you where the CO2<\/sub>\u00a0is coming from and where it's going to. In principle, you could run a movie and watch these sources and sinks move and carbon-cycle experts would likely say, 'I knew that. That makes sense.' But then there would be some surprises. We know there will be surprises because there is a sink that scientists have so far been unable to locate. They have hypotheses, but because we haven't had the data at a sufficiently fine spatial scale, so up to now, they don't know. Data from OCO-2 will help resolve that problem.\r\n\r\nWheeler:<\/strong>\u00a0How much CO2<\/sub>\u00a0do we estimate is in the atmosphere?\r\n\r\nCressie:<\/strong>\u00a0In April this year, the\u00a0400-parts-per-million level<\/a>\u00a0was surpassed worldwide. Natural sources of CO2<\/sub>\u00a0are largely balanced by CO2<\/sub>\u00a0sinks. Human-induced sources, such as from fossil-fuel burning and cement factories, are not in balance; a little over half is removed by the biosphere and oceans, but the rest\u2014more than two gigatons of carbon\u2014is added to the atmosphere every year. So if we reduce what we produce, we've got a better chance to keep global warming under the two degrees Celsius sustainability limit.\r\n\r\nFor more information about the relationship between spatial statistics and geodesign, watch Cressie's\u00a0video interview<\/a>."}],"references":null},"yoast_head":"\nMeasuring and Mapping Sources, Sinks of CO2 in the Atmosphere<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Noel Cressie, an expert in spatial and spatiotemporal statistics, describes his work analyzing climate models and assisting a team at the...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/about\/newsroom\/arcwatch\/measuring-and-mapping-sources-sinks-of-co2-in-the-atmosphere\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Measuring and Mapping 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