{"id":241052,"date":"2019-06-04T07:28:13","date_gmt":"2019-06-04T14:28:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/about\/newsroom\/?post_type=wherenext&p=241052"},"modified":"2024-05-10T05:57:00","modified_gmt":"2024-05-10T12:57:00","slug":"senior-housing-predictions","status":"publish","type":"wherenext","link":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/about\/newsroom\/publications\/wherenext\/senior-housing-predictions","title":{"rendered":"How Companies Are Planning for a Wave of Senior Living"},"author":501,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"sync_status":"","episode_type":"","audio_file":"","podmotor_file_id":"","podmotor_episode_id":"","castos_file_data":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","filesize_raw":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","itunes_episode_number":"","itunes_title":"","itunes_season_number":"","itunes_episode_type":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[1001,1561,691],"tags":[278732,362432,362422],"department":[488812],"wherenext-category":[],"industry":[],"class_list":["post-241052","wherenext","type-wherenext","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commercial","category-economic-development","category-smart-communities","tag-baby-boomers","tag-senior-housing","tag-silver-wave","department-emerging-technologies"],"acf":{"short_description":"Businesses use location tech to anticipate new markets as aging populations alter economies, lifestyles, and housing needs around the world.","pdf":{"host_remotely":false,"file":"","file_url":""},"flexible_content":[{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":"A seismic population shift portends immense economic change across the globe, and the most forward-thinking business executives are searching for ways to position their companies ahead of these changes.\r\n\r\nBy 2030, one in five people in the U.S<\/a>., 20 percent of the nation, will be over age 65. Globally, the trend is similar<\/a>.\r\n\r\nThe so-called silver wave will influence many parts <\/a>of the economy. Retailers and service providers will seek out seniors residing in age-defined communities that create clusters of older consumers in one location. Housing providers will be testing the market to gauge demand for independent living, assisted living, and skilled nursing care."},{"acf_fc_layout":"sidebar","layout":"standard","image_reference":null,"image_reference_figure":"","spotlight_image":null,"section_title":"","spotlight_name":"","position":"Right","content":"Article Snapshot:<\/strong> Developers and consultants hoping to cater to seniors with a high level of home equity are using predictive tools to anticipate where they will live and what kind of housing they\u2019ll expect.","snippet":""},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":"Many other options<\/a> also are being developed for those who want to age in place at their current residence, and those who want something in-between, such as smaller apartments with shared living, kitchen, or recreation facilities.\r\n\r\nAs this complex market grows, some businesses already have turned to geographic information systems (GIS)<\/a> to predict where growth of older populations will be concentrated and which economic choices and personal interests those residents will pursue. With sophisticated location analysis, GIS software can forecast patterns of migration, consumer behavior, and housing preferences, including who is likely to move and where.\r\n\r\nChoices Grow for Senior Living Options<\/strong>\r\n\r\nThe larger the over-60 segment grows, the more varied its interests and needs will be\u2014and the more informed a business must be to win those customers.\r\n\r\nWhile many seniors may choose to live near their adult children or stay in the area where they raised families, many others are willing to relocate to find the community and climate they want. Knight Frank<\/a>, a global real estate firm headquartered in London, estimates that although just a third of seniors consider moving into dedicated senior housing, that population will be so large that investors have shown interest in building residential units to suit older consumers around the world.\r\n\r\nAccording to a United Nations report, the number of people age 60 or older is expected to more than double to 2.1 billion in 2050. If just a third of those seniors seek to move to a new home, that\u2019s still a market of 700 million potential customers."},{"acf_fc_layout":"form","form_type":"aside","form_position":"Right","form_title":"CONSULT THE ESRI BRIEF","form_desc":"Stay up to date with this biweekly email featuring thought-provoking articles on location intelligence and critical economic trends.","form_button_label":"Sign up now","form_content":"https:\/\/go.pardot.com\/l\/82202\/2017-10-12\/jw1bmb","form_tag":"low-commitment-form\/sign-up-form"},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":"To identify the right mix of age, income, and personal interests for the investors, developers, and business executives it consults, Knight Frank relies on GIS software that can analyze markets in the context of location. The firm can locate concentrations of seniors bearing a trait that distinguishes them from previous generations: economic clout at retirement age and beyond.\r\n\r\nMany boomers will turn 65 while continuing to earn a good salary; many others already will have started drawing from substantial retirement plans. Naturally, some segments of seniors may face difficult circumstances\u2014and some have not saved enough for retirement<\/a>. But the boomer generation as a whole remains an economic dynamo. Already the wealthiest generation<\/a>, they \u00a0are expected to control 50.2 percent of net household wealth in 2020.\r\n\r\nInvestor Interest Rises with the Silver Wave<\/strong>\r\n\r\nWhere once older people often had limited housing options, now consumer-savvy and financially secure seniors can demand flexible, customizable choices.\r\n\r\nMore and more, seniors will look for living arrangements that suit their individual needs. That could mean a wellness community<\/a> that emphasizes healthy living and recreation, a housing development with multilingual staff, or top-of-the-line housing for those seeking luxury in their golden years.\r\n\r\nIn recognition of varied tastes, some edge-seeking businesses and investors are investigating ways to predict where and what kind of senior housing developments will be needed.\r\n\r\nKnight Frank uses GIS-powered location intelligence<\/a> to map out possible business opportunities. \u201cSpatial analysis finds us the right balance of market and demographic conditions, uncovering opportunities particularly suited to individual clients,\u201d says Ian McGuinness, head of the geospatial team and a partner at Knight Frank.\r\n\r\nInvestors are interested in a range of senior housing projects, including higher-end developments that are essentially subdivisions\u2014or even small cities for seniors. Places such as The Villages, based in Sumter County, Florida, have been highly successful at attracting residents. In fact, a \u00a02018 U.S. Census Bureau report<\/a> found that The Villages ranked first among all U.S. metropolitan areas in percent population growth. The senior-living development grew from 93,420 residents in 2010 to 128,754 in 2018\u2014an increase of nearly 38 percent.\r\n\r\nOnce a developer identifies geographic areas where the senior population is expected to grow, the next step is often to use GIS to locate potential properties and determine whether the sites should become communities, apartments, shared dormitory-like accommodations, or even mixed-age developments near a college campus."},{"acf_fc_layout":"quote","image":241072,"text":"GIS-based analysis mixes demographic and commercial market data with predictive algorithms to guide developers to where seniors will be.","author_name":"","author_profession_organization":""},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":"Policy Guides Investment <\/strong>\r\n\r\nAs business leaders and investors explore the strengthening senior living market, some governments are creating guidelines to accommodate this demographic shift, in the same way some areas have imposed rules for including affordable housing in development plans.\r\n\r\nIn Europe, where 25 percent of the population has already reached 60, the European Union has announced initiatives<\/a> to prepare for further growth. And in London, governmental authorities have begun developing benchmarks for the amount and type of senior housing that should exist in the city and surrounding boroughs. The New London Plan<\/a> aims to ensure that a certain percentage of each residential project includes housing for seniors, based on the characteristics and needs of the locale.\r\n\r\nThat official focus on future needs has helped stimulate interest in senior housing from both operators and investors around the world, including in China and the Middle East, in addition to Great Britain and the U.S. \u201cFinally, it seems that at least a few people have woken up to what's going on,\u201d says Tom Scaife, who heads up the senior living team at Knight Frank. \u201cWe know from colleagues across our network that there's an impending need in some other countries as well that's only getting more accentuated.\u201d"},{"acf_fc_layout":"sidebar","layout":"standard","image_reference":null,"image_reference_figure":"","spotlight_image":null,"section_title":"","spotlight_name":"","position":"Right","content":"