{"id":29791,"date":"2018-05-22T13:10:16","date_gmt":"2018-05-22T20:10:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/about\/newsroom\/?post_type=wherenext&#038;p=29791"},"modified":"2024-02-02T14:19:21","modified_gmt":"2024-02-02T22:19:21","slug":"business-growth-and-market-planning","status":"publish","type":"wherenext","link":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/about\/newsroom\/publications\/wherenext\/business-growth-and-market-planning","title":{"rendered":"The Growth Insights Series: Planning the Best Markets\u2014Intuition Meets Data"},"author":501,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"sync_status":"","episode_type":"","audio_file":"","podmotor_file_id":"","podmotor_episode_id":"","castos_file_data":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","filesize_raw":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","itunes_episode_number":"","itunes_title":"","itunes_season_number":"","itunes_episode_type":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[1001,381312,791,971],"tags":[6801,55412,6811],"department":[476812,476792],"wherenext-category":[],"industry":[],"class_list":["post-29791","wherenext","type-wherenext","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commercial","category-cxo-priorities","category-digital-transformation","category-location-strategy","tag-digital-intelligence","tag-growth-insights","tag-market-planning","department-business-growth","department-cxo-priorities"],"acf":{"short_description":"Successful executives are fusing digital knowledge and intuition to drive business expansion, as a growing midsize business demonstrates.","pdf":{"host_remotely":false,"file":"","file_url":""},"flexible_content":[{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":"<em>Editor\u2019s note: <\/em>WhereNext<em>\u2019s Growth Insights series examines several dimensions of business growth. We begin with an article that explores market planning among midsize companies, and the fine balance of science and data that helps businesses\u2014whether they\u2019re midsize or large caps\u2014expand intelligently. We\u2019ll follow with articles on the direct-to-consumer phenomenon, how to spot consumer trends years in advance, the supply chain implications of growth, and more. <\/em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nData and intuition are a business leader\u2019s boon companions, guiding decisions that can fuel company growth in the best possible markets. Ask some CXOs in confidence and they\u2019ll say they favor their intuition. But their faith in data\u2014especially smarter data\u2014is rising.\r\n\r\nDale Sanford pursues growth for a living. As vice president of development and integration at Mortenson Dental Partners, he works with other company executives to expand a business that began in Kentucky and has expanded to nine states, providing general and specialty dental services for more than 100 communities."},{"acf_fc_layout":"sidebar","layout":"standard","image_reference":null,"image_reference_figure":"","spotlight_image":null,"section_title":"","spotlight_name":"","position":"Left","content":"<h2><strong>Understanding Customers <\/strong><\/h2>\r\nAt a high level, Mortenson Dental\u2019s potential pool of patients isn\u2019t especially nuanced\u2014most people need dental services throughout their lives. Still, the company benefits from understanding the populations around its practices\u2014another form of location intelligence. In fact, for each geographic area where Mortenson might seek to build, acquire, or grow a practice, Dale Sanford and his team run a thorough GIS-based study.\r\n\r\n\u201cWe look at things like population density, population growth rates, average annual incomes, education levels,\u201d he explains. \u201cWe\u2019ve even at times used things like purchases of dental consumer products in the market.\u201d","snippet":""},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":"For the past decade, the company has maintained a blistering growth rate, acquiring, starting up, and expanding practices across the country. Fueling that growth is a mix of executive intuition and analytical data. Lately, the role of data has grown, as Sanford, his team, and Mortenson\u2019s C-level executives now regularly consult a geographic information system (GIS) for insight about where and how the company should grow.\r\n\r\n<strong>Decision-Making in the Era of Digital Transformation<\/strong>\r\n\r\nDuring Jack Welch\u2019s time at General Electric, the much-ballyhooed CEO was often credited with an <a href=\"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/chapter\/10.1057\/9781137316271_8\">intuitive management style<\/a>. Employing the approach he outlined in the book <em>Straight from the Gut<\/em>, Welch drove GE\u2019s growth from a $13 billion company in 1981 to a $400 billion company two decades later.\r\n\r\nYet, as he has explained, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=4r5hTR2WWCc\">data and intuition mingle more than we might think<\/a>. \u201cGut is only pattern recognition,\u201d he explained at a recent conference. \u201cIt\u2019s data you\u2019ve accumulated over a number of years that allows you to make a call. . . . I still think you like [to have] as much data as you can get.\u201d\r\n\r\nSince Welch retired from GE in 2001, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/digital-transformation\/overview\">digital transformation<\/a> has drastically increased the amount of data available to executives. IoT-based sensors reveal the real-time health of critical assets. Data from mobile devices shows patterns of foot traffic in locations around the globe. And modern GIS technology allows business executives to map what-if scenarios for business growth.\r\n\r\nBut as most business leaders can attest, the perfect blend of science and intuition isn\u2019t always easy to discern. For those responsible for growing a business in the era of digital transformation, the <em>Harvard Business Review<\/em> may have captured the ideal strategy in its 2017 article \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/hbr.org\/2017\/06\/the-best-approach-to-decision-making-combines-data-and-managers-expertise\">The Best Approach to Decision Making Combines Data and Managers\u2019 Expertise<\/a>.\u201d"},{"acf_fc_layout":"quote","image":29771,"text":"When we find a potential new site or a potential acquisition, one of the first things that we'll do in GIS is pull population counts and existing dentist counts, because that population-to-dentist ratio is very important to us in determining the competitive landscape.","author_name":"Dale Sanford, Mortenson Dental Partners","author_profession_organization":""},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":"In a 2016 survey, the <a href=\"https:\/\/smith.queensu.ca\/insight\/\">Smith School of Business at Canada\u2019s Queens University<\/a> found that 61 percent of senior business leaders \u201csomewhat agree\u201d that important decisions are now based more on data and less on intuition. Still, only 20 percent strongly agreed.\r\n\r\n<strong>Intuition and Digital Intelligence\u2014Forces for Growth <\/strong>\r\n\r\nSanford falls into the \u201cstrongly agree\u201d camp. He is one of the Mortenson executives charged with maintaining year-over-year revenue growth that has topped 20 percent for the past decade. The doctor-owned company\u2014each dentist at a Mortenson Dental Partners location is a full-fledged company owner\u2014is blazing its own growth path while <a href=\"https:\/\/www.agd.org\/docs\/default-source\/policies-and-white-papers\/impact-and-gd-articles\/is-this-the-end-of-general-dentistry-as-we-know-it.pdf?sfvrsn=493177b1_2\">other practices are absorbed by corporations<\/a>, bolstered by private equity funding, or worse, not surviving the disruption."},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":"From its roots in Louisville in 1979, Mortenson Dental has grown into nine states, acquiring and building dental practices in markets with favorable profiles. Decisions about where to grow have always been a blend of intuition and data, Sanford says, but with the company\u2019s recent implementation of location intelligence technology, the emphasis is now on smarter data.\r\n\r\n\u201cWe don't make capital investment decisions for our growth without a full GIS analysis of whatever the opportunity is,\u201d Sanford says. \u201cIt's key to what we do.\u201d\r\n\r\nLocation intelligence is a form of business intelligence that helps organizations discover relationships, patterns, and insight hidden in their data. Location intelligence technology helps by combining multiple layers of data and business criteria\u2014like market trends, neighborhood demographics, and customer analytics\u2014onto interactive maps and visualizations. The subsequent analysis provides unique insight about opportunities that drive better decision-making for growth\u2014and help a company avoid costly mistakes related to poor location decisions.\r\n\r\nThe location intelligence gleaned from GIS often confirms the leanings of Mortenson\u2019s executive team, Sanford says. Still, \u201cif the data says one thing, [we] may disagree, but we typically make the final decision based off the data and not intuition.\u201d\r\n\r\n<strong>How Location Technology Drives Business Growth\u00a0 <\/strong>\r\n\r\nMortenson\u2019s growth is almost equally split among three channels: acquiring practices, starting up new ones, and expanding the practices it already owns. The team uses location intelligence to assess each growth opportunity, and GIS is the main engine. Sanford explains the basic steps:\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li><strong>New site evaluations<\/strong>\u2014The Mortenson team begins by using GIS to map the competitive landscape around a proposed new location\u2014whether that\u2019s an acquisition, a new practice, or expansion\u2014and examine other general and specialist dental providers in the area.<\/li>\r\n \t<li><strong>Market demographics<\/strong>\u2014To get a sense of the prospective patient population, Sanford and team enlist GIS to map local population density, growth rates, average income, education levels\u2014even purchases of dental products. For a pediatric dental practice, the analyst might use GIS to measure the population under 18 years of age, along with the prevalence of pediatric doctors or children\u2019s hospitals in the area.<\/li>\r\n \t<li><strong>Dentist ratio<\/strong>\u2014For a practice to thrive, Mortenson needs a certain number of people living within a reasonable driving distance of the office. A dentist-to-population ratio of 1 to 1,600 stretches the lower limits of viability, while 1 in 2,000 is a much healthier level. Sanford and team use GIS drive-time studies to determine the ratio in each market.<\/li>\r\n \t<li><strong>Traffic evaluations<\/strong>\u2014Mortenson enlists traffic analysis for two purposes: to gauge the hustle and bustle around a prospective location and, once a site has been selected, to identify prime locations for billboard advertisements that will reach prospective patients.<\/li>\r\n \t<li><strong>Cannibalization studies<\/strong>\u2014Sanford and team have developed a robust GIS model to understand patient behavior around current offices. \u201cWe try to predict if we drop a new site in, what's going to happen to those existing sites,\u201d he explains.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<strong>Location Intelligence in Practice <\/strong>\r\n\r\nA recent growth opportunity in Texas put many of these activities to the test. Mortenson was already operating a dental office in Lubbock when a retiring pediatric dentist offered to sell his practice to the company.\r\n\r\n\u201cIt was a great opportunity,\u201d Sanford explains. \u201cBut since we already had a practice in the immediate market, we debated how to purchase and relocate the retiring doctor's practice a little further south into a rapidly growing area of Lubbock.\u201d"},{"acf_fc_layout":"quote","image":29781,"text":"Our executive leadership team is very visual, so we'll plot maps with locations and drive times and patient population pins. When we're ready to propose a project, we use that data stream from the GIS tools and orchestrate those visualizations to help them understand what we're seeing.","author_name":"Dale Sanford, Mortenson Dental Partners","author_profession_organization":""},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":"Executives suspected the acquisition and relocation could be profitable, but wanted to confirm it and identify the right location. First, analysts created a map of the retiring dentist\u2019s patients to determine where they were coming from.\u00a0Then they developed a GIS-based heat map showing areas of Lubbock with a high prevalence of residents under 18, and another heat map showing areas where that population was projected to grow in coming years. That data helped executives pinpoint the best geographic area to relocate the pediatric practice.\r\n\r\n\u201cWe know we'll experience some leakage of patients,\u201d Sanford concedes. \u201cHowever, our assumption is that if we locate in the right area, we can minimize patient leakage and even offset it by attracting net new patients.\u201d\r\n\r\n<strong>Instilling Confidence to Grow <\/strong>\r\n\r\nFor the leadership team at Mortenson, GIS-powered location intelligence has helped create \u201can increased level of confidence when we're making investment decisions to grow our organization,\u201d Sanford says. The company\u2019s president of dental teams, William Becknell, echoes the point. \"Analytics are critical to Mortenson Dental Partners to ensure our location strategy is based on empirical facts, ultimately impacting access to oral health care in the communities we serve.\"\r\n\r\nAs innovative business leaders across every sector wrestle with the persistent challenge of growth, they are aggressively fusing advanced data and intuition. Now, with modern GIS and location intelligence, successful executives say they have a new view of business opportunities, and the result is greater clarity and opportunity to better serve their customers.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFor insight on avoiding the overlooked perils of data analysis, read this <a href=\"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/about\/newsroom\/publications\/wherenext\/data-analysis-pitfalls\/\">article on the data-driven business<\/a>.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<em>Photo courtesy of Charles Forerunner <\/em>"}],"references":null},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.9 (Yoast SEO v25.9) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Business Growth in the Age of Digital Transformation \u2502 Intuition v. Science<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"For executives responsible for growing a business, digital transformation and digital intelligence have delivered advanced data that can support\u2014and sometimes challenge\u2014their intuition.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/about\/newsroom\/publications\/wherenext\/business-growth-and-market-planning\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Growth Insights Series: Planning the Best Markets\u2014Intuition Meets Data\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"For executives responsible for growing a business, digital transformation and digital intelligence have delivered advanced data that can support\u2014and sometimes challenge\u2014their intuition.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/about\/newsroom\/publications\/wherenext\/business-growth-and-market-planning\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Esri\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/esrigis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-02-02T22:19:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/about\/newsroom\/app\/uploads\/2018\/05\/WhereNext-BusinessGrowthCard-826-x-465.jpg\" \/><meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/about\/newsroom\/app\/uploads\/2018\/05\/WhereNext-BusinessGrowthCard-826-x-465.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"630\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@Esri\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"9 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\/\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/about\/newsroom\/publications\/wherenext\/business-growth-and-market-planning\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/about\/newsroom\/publications\/wherenext\/business-growth-and-market-planning\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Business Growth in the Age of Digital Transformation \u2502 Intuition v. 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