The Russian invasion has destroyed much of that cropland.<\/p>\n
Within Living Atlas<\/a>, the Armed Conflict & Event Data Project (ACLED)<\/a> shows the location and scale of riots, explosions, and warfare globally. This layer currently shows the extent of fighting in Eastern Ukraine \u2013 a heavily agricultural region \u2013 as of early July 2022.<\/p>\n We can use satellite imagery to better understand this disruption. Living Atlas includes 10m Multispectral Sentinel Imagery<\/a> updated daily.<\/p>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"image","image":{"ID":1659452,"id":1659452,"title":"siever_before","filename":"siever_before.png","filesize":839605,"url":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/siever_before.png","link":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/products\/arcgis-living-atlas\/mapping\/future-agriculture\/siever_before","alt":"Eastern Ukrainian farmland as of August 2021.","author":"8492","description":"","caption":"","name":"siever_before","status":"inherit","uploaded_to":1576042,"date":"2022-07-08 19:24:08","modified":"2022-07-08 20:29:08","menu_order":0,"mime_type":"image\/png","type":"image","subtype":"png","icon":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/default.png","width":975,"height":455,"sizes":{"thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/siever_before-213x200.png","thumbnail-width":213,"thumbnail-height":200,"medium":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/siever_before.png","medium-width":464,"medium-height":217,"medium_large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/siever_before.png","medium_large-width":768,"medium_large-height":358,"large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/siever_before.png","large-width":975,"large-height":455,"1536x1536":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/siever_before.png","1536x1536-width":975,"1536x1536-height":455,"2048x2048":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/siever_before.png","2048x2048-width":975,"2048x2048-height":455,"card_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/siever_before-826x385.png","card_image-width":826,"card_image-height":385,"wide_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/siever_before.png","wide_image-width":975,"wide_image-height":455}},"image_position":"center","orientation":"horizontal","hyperlink":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/siever_before.png"},{"acf_fc_layout":"image","image":{"ID":1659442,"id":1659442,"title":"siever_after","filename":"siever_after.png","filesize":954306,"url":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/siever_after.png","link":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/products\/arcgis-living-atlas\/mapping\/future-agriculture\/siever_after","alt":"Eastern Ukrainian farmland as of July 2022","author":"8492","description":"","caption":"Eastern Ukrainian farmland before (top) and after (bottom) Russian invasion.","name":"siever_after","status":"inherit","uploaded_to":1576042,"date":"2022-07-08 19:23:46","modified":"2022-07-08 20:31:34","menu_order":0,"mime_type":"image\/png","type":"image","subtype":"png","icon":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/default.png","width":976,"height":471,"sizes":{"thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/siever_after-213x200.png","thumbnail-width":213,"thumbnail-height":200,"medium":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/siever_after.png","medium-width":464,"medium-height":224,"medium_large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/siever_after.png","medium_large-width":768,"medium_large-height":371,"large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/siever_after.png","large-width":976,"large-height":471,"1536x1536":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/siever_after.png","1536x1536-width":976,"1536x1536-height":471,"2048x2048":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/siever_after.png","2048x2048-width":976,"2048x2048-height":471,"card_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/siever_after-826x399.png","card_image-width":826,"card_image-height":399,"wide_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/siever_after.png","wide_image-width":976,"wide_image-height":471}},"image_position":"center","orientation":"horizontal","hyperlink":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/siever_after.png"},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":" Above is a view of rural farmland outside of Sievierodonetsk in eastern Ukraine, an area hit by heavy fire since the Russian invasion began. Basemap<\/a> imagery taken in August 2021 (top image) shows green, productive wheat fields. Imagery obtained this week of July 2022 (bottom image)shows massive shelling and subsequent fires have destroyed that same cropland.<\/p>\n While the devastation within Ukraine is enormous, Ukraine will not be the only nation to suffer due to Russia\u2019s invasion. Only a handful of temperate countries export<\/a> most of the worlds grain. Together Russia, the United States, Canada, France, and Ukraine are responsible for 65% of global wheat exports.<\/p>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"image","image":{"ID":1659492,"id":1659492,"title":"wheat_trade","filename":"wheat_trade.png","filesize":129715,"url":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_trade.png","link":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/products\/arcgis-living-atlas\/mapping\/future-agriculture\/wheat_trade","alt":"Chart showing scale and destination of wheat exports from top five exporters (million of metric tonnes).","author":"8492","description":"","caption":"Chart showing scale and destination of wheat exports from top five exporters (million of metric tonnes).","name":"wheat_trade","status":"inherit","uploaded_to":1576042,"date":"2022-07-08 19:25:03","modified":"2022-07-08 20:34:09","menu_order":0,"mime_type":"image\/png","type":"image","subtype":"png","icon":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/default.png","width":1035,"height":672,"sizes":{"thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_trade-213x200.png","thumbnail-width":213,"thumbnail-height":200,"medium":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_trade.png","medium-width":402,"medium-height":261,"medium_large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_trade.png","medium_large-width":768,"medium_large-height":499,"large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_trade.png","large-width":1035,"large-height":672,"1536x1536":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_trade.png","1536x1536-width":1035,"1536x1536-height":672,"2048x2048":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_trade.png","2048x2048-width":1035,"2048x2048-height":672,"card_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_trade-716x465.png","card_image-width":716,"card_image-height":465,"wide_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_trade.png","wide_image-width":1035,"wide_image-height":672}},"image_position":"center","orientation":"horizontal","hyperlink":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_trade.png"},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":" As one of the world\u2019s greatest grain producers, Ukraine exports 18 million metric tonnes of wheat (9% of all wheat exports). Most Ukrainian wheat flows to the Middle East, North Africa, and Southeast Asia \u2013 already food-insecure places. Any disruption to Ukraine\u2019s production or export capabilities will seriously impact these downstream, food-insecure nations.<\/p>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"image","image":{"ID":1659552,"id":1659552,"title":"wheatexportersjpg","filename":"wheatexportersjpg.jpg","filesize":57329,"url":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/wheatexportersjpg.jpg","link":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/products\/arcgis-living-atlas\/mapping\/future-agriculture\/wheatexportersjpg","alt":"Top Eurasian Wheat Exporters","author":"8492","description":"","caption":"Top Eurasian Wheat Exporters","name":"wheatexportersjpg","status":"inherit","uploaded_to":1576042,"date":"2022-07-08 19:35:21","modified":"2022-07-08 20:37:12","menu_order":0,"mime_type":"image\/jpeg","type":"image","subtype":"jpeg","icon":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/default.png","width":1102,"height":472,"sizes":{"thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/wheatexportersjpg-213x200.jpg","thumbnail-width":213,"thumbnail-height":200,"medium":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/wheatexportersjpg.jpg","medium-width":464,"medium-height":199,"medium_large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/wheatexportersjpg.jpg","medium_large-width":768,"medium_large-height":329,"large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/wheatexportersjpg.jpg","large-width":1102,"large-height":472,"1536x1536":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/wheatexportersjpg.jpg","1536x1536-width":1102,"1536x1536-height":472,"2048x2048":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/wheatexportersjpg.jpg","2048x2048-width":1102,"2048x2048-height":472,"card_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/wheatexportersjpg-826x354.jpg","card_image-width":826,"card_image-height":354,"wide_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/wheatexportersjpg.jpg","wide_image-width":1102,"wide_image-height":472}},"image_position":"center","orientation":"horizontal","hyperlink":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/wheatexportersjpg.jpg"},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":" The crisis in Ukraine has exposed one of the major vulnerabilities to the global food supply chain: low-income countries with the most vulnerable populations are often reliant on imported grain. Already 18 of the most food insecure nations<\/a> collectively import<\/a> two-thirds of their wheat from only four countries (the United States, Russia, Ukraine, and Canada). In Lebanon, where 2 million people area already extremely food insecure, 55% of grain imports come from Ukraine. In the short term, Lebanon will be squeezed by smaller and fewer Ukrainian wheat imports; however, in the long term, Lebanon and countries like it face a more existential threat.<\/p>\n Climate change will exacerbate existing shortfalls in global food security; areas near the equator will become less able to cultivate grain locally as temperatures become more extreme and their need for imports greater. With warming temperatures pushing grain-suitable land further to the poles, grain production will be concentrated in a smaller number of countries. The result is that warm-climate, low-income nations will be increasingly reliant on a smaller number of producers that will have more leverage over global food supply.<\/p>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"image","image":{"ID":1659562,"id":1659562,"title":"wheatglobal_2020jpg","filename":"wheatglobal_2020jpg.jpg","filesize":73556,"url":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/wheatglobal_2020jpg.jpg","link":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/products\/arcgis-living-atlas\/mapping\/future-agriculture\/wheatglobal_2020jpg","alt":"Current global wheat suitability 2020.","author":"8492","description":"","caption":"Current global wheat suitability 2020.","name":"wheatglobal_2020jpg","status":"inherit","uploaded_to":1576042,"date":"2022-07-08 19:35:46","modified":"2022-07-08 20:39:24","menu_order":0,"mime_type":"image\/jpeg","type":"image","subtype":"jpeg","icon":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/default.png","width":1624,"height":818,"sizes":{"thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/wheatglobal_2020jpg-213x200.jpg","thumbnail-width":213,"thumbnail-height":200,"medium":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/wheatglobal_2020jpg.jpg","medium-width":464,"medium-height":234,"medium_large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/wheatglobal_2020jpg.jpg","medium_large-width":768,"medium_large-height":387,"large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/wheatglobal_2020jpg.jpg","large-width":1624,"large-height":818,"1536x1536":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/wheatglobal_2020jpg-1536x774.jpg","1536x1536-width":1536,"1536x1536-height":774,"2048x2048":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/wheatglobal_2020jpg.jpg","2048x2048-width":1624,"2048x2048-height":818,"card_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/wheatglobal_2020jpg-826x416.jpg","card_image-width":826,"card_image-height":416,"wide_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/wheatglobal_2020jpg.jpg","wide_image-width":1624,"wide_image-height":818}},"image_position":"center","orientation":"horizontal","hyperlink":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/wheatglobal_2020jpg.jpg"},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":" To better understand how climate change will impact global wheat suitability between now and 2050,you can use the new modeling tools that are available in ArcGIS Pro. Using the Presence-Only Prediction<\/a> tool within the Spatial Statistic toolbox we applied correlative machine learning to study wheat suitability. We trained the model on NASA cropland<\/a> data with 19 bioclimatic and\u00a0two topographic layers and predicted using 2050 RCP 8.5 climate data, representing the \u201cbusiness as usual\u201d emissions scenario. The model intrinsically learns the relationship between climate and wheat presence and can essentially predict wheat suitability across the entire globe.<\/p>\n The results show that wheat suitability is expected to shift dramatically to more extreme latitudes. Today, most of the world\u2019s wheat is grown in the between 45 and 57 \u00b0N. Of those wheat-cultivating regions of the world, most will experience a decrease in wheat suitability. Areas beyond approximately 55 degrees of latitude may experience increased wheat suitability by 2050.<\/p>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"image","image":{"ID":1659462,"id":1659462,"title":"wheat_global_2050","filename":"wheat_global_2050.png","filesize":233450,"url":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_global_2050.png","link":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/products\/arcgis-living-atlas\/mapping\/future-agriculture\/wheat_global_2050","alt":"Current global wheat suitability 2050.","author":"8492","description":"","caption":"Current global wheat suitability 2050.","name":"wheat_global_2050","status":"inherit","uploaded_to":1576042,"date":"2022-07-08 19:24:35","modified":"2022-07-08 22:45:21","menu_order":0,"mime_type":"image\/png","type":"image","subtype":"png","icon":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/default.png","width":1622,"height":824,"sizes":{"thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_global_2050-213x200.png","thumbnail-width":213,"thumbnail-height":200,"medium":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_global_2050.png","medium-width":464,"medium-height":236,"medium_large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_global_2050.png","medium_large-width":768,"medium_large-height":390,"large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_global_2050.png","large-width":1622,"large-height":824,"1536x1536":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_global_2050-1536x780.png","1536x1536-width":1536,"1536x1536-height":780,"2048x2048":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_global_2050.png","2048x2048-width":1622,"2048x2048-height":824,"card_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_global_2050-826x420.png","card_image-width":826,"card_image-height":420,"wide_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_global_2050.png","wide_image-width":1622,"wide_image-height":824}},"image_position":"center","orientation":"horizontal","hyperlink":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_global_2050.png"},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":" The latitudinal shift is strongest and most evident in the Northern Hemisphere due to the simple fact that there is more land in the Northern Hemisphere. This northward shift will likely mean that wheat cultivation will be further concentrated in the few countries set to see increases in suitability (Canada, Russia, and Scandinavia) at the expense of countries closer to the equator and more reliant of imports.<\/p>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"image","image":{"ID":1659472,"id":1659472,"title":"wheat_potential","filename":"wheat_potential.png","filesize":154004,"url":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_potential.png","link":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/products\/arcgis-living-atlas\/mapping\/future-agriculture\/wheat_potential","alt":"Current wheat extent is visualized on the map, and the accompanying chart shows the latitudinal shifts as a result of climate change. The latitudinal suitability shown in this chart is derived from the summation of predictive suitability values within each degree of latitude.","author":"8492","description":"","caption":"Current wheat extent is visualized on the map, and the accompanying chart shows the latitudinal shifts as a result of climate change. The latitudinal suitability shown in this chart is derived from the summation of predictive suitability values within each degree of latitude.","name":"wheat_potential","status":"inherit","uploaded_to":1576042,"date":"2022-07-08 19:24:49","modified":"2022-07-08 22:54:40","menu_order":0,"mime_type":"image\/png","type":"image","subtype":"png","icon":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/default.png","width":1440,"height":883,"sizes":{"thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_potential-213x200.png","thumbnail-width":213,"thumbnail-height":200,"medium":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_potential.png","medium-width":426,"medium-height":261,"medium_large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_potential.png","medium_large-width":768,"medium_large-height":471,"large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_potential.png","large-width":1440,"large-height":883,"1536x1536":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_potential.png","1536x1536-width":1440,"1536x1536-height":883,"2048x2048":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_potential.png","2048x2048-width":1440,"2048x2048-height":883,"card_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_potential-758x465.png","card_image-width":758,"card_image-height":465,"wide_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_potential.png","wide_image-width":1440,"wide_image-height":883}},"image_position":"center","orientation":"horizontal","hyperlink":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/wheat_potential.png"},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":" Though wheat may have been first cultivated in this region \u2013 what is now Iraq, Syria, and Jordan \u2013 the region is far from suitable to the crop now. Wheat suitability increases closer to the coasts and the foothills of the Caucasus.<\/p>\n By 2050, however, even these more suitable areas will become too hot for extensive wheat cultivation. In a region already troubled by recent conflict and civil war, food security of vital concern. Lebanon in particular has 2 million people who are severely food insecure, and as it stands, Lebanon imports 1.2 million metric tonnes of wheat annually – more than half of it coming from Ukraine. While the invasion of Ukraine will affect food security in Lebanon acutely, climate change also poses a more long-term threat. Wheat suitability will likely decrease notably within Lebanon. Such decrease in suitability will make Lebanon and neighboring countries more reliant on imports \u2013 whether from Ukraine or elsewhere \u2013 to support their populations.<\/p>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"image","image":{"ID":1660152,"id":1660152,"title":"Lebanon","filename":"Lebanon.png","filesize":459177,"url":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Lebanon.png","link":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/products\/arcgis-living-atlas\/mapping\/future-agriculture\/lebanon","alt":"Lebanon wheat suitability 2020 (left) and 2050 (right).","author":"8492","description":"","caption":"Lebanon wheat suitability 2020 (left) and 2050 (right).","name":"lebanon","status":"inherit","uploaded_to":1576042,"date":"2022-07-08 21:10:44","modified":"2022-07-08 21:11:20","menu_order":0,"mime_type":"image\/png","type":"image","subtype":"png","icon":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/default.png","width":1447,"height":745,"sizes":{"thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Lebanon-213x200.png","thumbnail-width":213,"thumbnail-height":200,"medium":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Lebanon.png","medium-width":464,"medium-height":239,"medium_large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Lebanon.png","medium_large-width":768,"medium_large-height":395,"large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Lebanon.png","large-width":1447,"large-height":745,"1536x1536":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Lebanon.png","1536x1536-width":1447,"1536x1536-height":745,"2048x2048":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Lebanon.png","2048x2048-width":1447,"2048x2048-height":745,"card_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Lebanon-826x425.png","card_image-width":826,"card_image-height":425,"wide_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Lebanon.png","wide_image-width":1447,"wide_image-height":745}},"image_position":"center","orientation":"horizontal","hyperlink":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Lebanon.png"},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":" While most of the world will see decreases in wheat suitability, Scandinavia is one of the few regions where wheat cultivation could increase. A region with a historically short growing season, Scandinavia will likely experience warmer, longer summers due to climate change. As a result, wheat suitability will creep northward into the subarctic regions of these countries.<\/p>\n The region as a whole exports very little wheat currently (1.2 million metric tonnes in Finland, Norway, and Sweden), but this value could increase as the region warms. Increased suitability in Scandinavia could help counterbalance losses elsewhere in the world if Scandinavia capitalizes on this opportunity and exports to countries where suitability will decrease.<\/p>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"image","image":{"ID":1660112,"id":1660112,"title":"Scandanavia","filename":"Scandanavia.png","filesize":334519,"url":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Scandanavia.png","link":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/products\/arcgis-living-atlas\/mapping\/future-agriculture\/scandanavia","alt":"Scandinavian wheat suitability 2020 (left) and 2050 (right).","author":"8492","description":"","caption":"Scandinavian wheat suitability 2020 (left) and 2050 (right).","name":"scandanavia","status":"inherit","uploaded_to":1576042,"date":"2022-07-08 21:04:22","modified":"2022-07-08 21:05:32","menu_order":0,"mime_type":"image\/png","type":"image","subtype":"png","icon":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/default.png","width":1285,"height":621,"sizes":{"thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Scandanavia-213x200.png","thumbnail-width":213,"thumbnail-height":200,"medium":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Scandanavia.png","medium-width":464,"medium-height":224,"medium_large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Scandanavia.png","medium_large-width":768,"medium_large-height":371,"large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Scandanavia.png","large-width":1285,"large-height":621,"1536x1536":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Scandanavia.png","1536x1536-width":1285,"1536x1536-height":621,"2048x2048":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Scandanavia.png","2048x2048-width":1285,"2048x2048-height":621,"card_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Scandanavia-826x399.png","card_image-width":826,"card_image-height":399,"wide_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Scandanavia.png","wide_image-width":1285,"wide_image-height":621}},"image_position":"center","orientation":"horizontal","hyperlink":""},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":" These were some of the most dramatic global shifts we saw of wheat suitability and thought they would be best represented as animations.<\/p>\n Predicting changes in food security is often bleak. Between conflict and climate change, many factors contribute to cropland destruction, supply disruptions, and decreased cultivation. With this foresight however, we can anticipate and plan for the impacts that climate change will bring. Data available within the Living Atlas<\/a> can help demonstrate the risk climate changes poses to global agriculture and provide tools to understand and mitigate those risks.<\/p>\nThe long term: climate change and its impacts<\/h2>\n
Lebanon<\/h2>\n
Scandinavia<\/h2>\n
Animated Wheat Suitability<\/h2>\n
Asia<\/span><\/h3>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"image","image":{"ID":1687082,"id":1687082,"title":"WheatSuit_Asia_small","filename":"WheatSuit_Asia_small.gif","filesize":5908726,"url":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/WheatSuit_Asia_small.gif","link":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/products\/arcgis-living-atlas\/mapping\/future-agriculture\/wheatsuit_asia_small","alt":"Animation showing current and future wheat suitability for Asia.","author":"8492","description":"","caption":"","name":"wheatsuit_asia_small","status":"inherit","uploaded_to":1576042,"date":"2022-08-16 02:12:06","modified":"2022-08-16 02:16:02","menu_order":0,"mime_type":"image\/gif","type":"image","subtype":"gif","icon":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/default.png","width":640,"height":640,"sizes":{"thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/WheatSuit_Asia_small-213x200.gif","thumbnail-width":213,"thumbnail-height":200,"medium":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/WheatSuit_Asia_small.gif","medium-width":261,"medium-height":261,"medium_large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/WheatSuit_Asia_small.gif","medium_large-width":640,"medium_large-height":640,"large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/WheatSuit_Asia_small.gif","large-width":640,"large-height":640,"1536x1536":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/WheatSuit_Asia_small.gif","1536x1536-width":640,"1536x1536-height":640,"2048x2048":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/WheatSuit_Asia_small.gif","2048x2048-width":640,"2048x2048-height":640,"card_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/WheatSuit_Asia_small-465x465.gif","card_image-width":465,"card_image-height":465,"wide_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/WheatSuit_Asia_small.gif","wide_image-width":640,"wide_image-height":640}},"image_position":"center","orientation":"horizontal","hyperlink":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/WheatSuit_Asia_small.gif"},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":"
Europe<\/h3>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"image","image":{"ID":1688332,"id":1688332,"title":"Wheat_Suit_Europe_opt","filename":"Wheat_Suit_Europe_opt.gif","filesize":7553126,"url":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Wheat_Suit_Europe_opt.gif","link":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/products\/arcgis-living-atlas\/mapping\/future-agriculture\/wheat_suit_europe_opt","alt":"Animation showing current and future wheat suitability for Asia.","author":"8492","description":"","caption":"","name":"wheat_suit_europe_opt","status":"inherit","uploaded_to":1576042,"date":"2022-08-17 16:29:18","modified":"2022-08-17 16:46:36","menu_order":0,"mime_type":"image\/gif","type":"image","subtype":"gif","icon":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/default.png","width":640,"height":640,"sizes":{"thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Wheat_Suit_Europe_opt-213x200.gif","thumbnail-width":213,"thumbnail-height":200,"medium":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Wheat_Suit_Europe_opt.gif","medium-width":261,"medium-height":261,"medium_large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Wheat_Suit_Europe_opt.gif","medium_large-width":640,"medium_large-height":640,"large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Wheat_Suit_Europe_opt.gif","large-width":640,"large-height":640,"1536x1536":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Wheat_Suit_Europe_opt.gif","1536x1536-width":640,"1536x1536-height":640,"2048x2048":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Wheat_Suit_Europe_opt.gif","2048x2048-width":640,"2048x2048-height":640,"card_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Wheat_Suit_Europe_opt-465x465.gif","card_image-width":465,"card_image-height":465,"wide_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Wheat_Suit_Europe_opt.gif","wide_image-width":640,"wide_image-height":640}},"image_position":"center","orientation":"horizontal","hyperlink":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Wheat_Suit_Europe_opt.gif"},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":"
United States<\/h3>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"image","image":{"ID":1687092,"id":1687092,"title":"WheatSuit_USA_small","filename":"WheatSuit_USA_small.gif","filesize":5245234,"url":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/WheatSuit_USA_small.gif","link":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/products\/arcgis-living-atlas\/mapping\/future-agriculture\/wheatsuit_usa_small","alt":"Animation showing current and future wheat suitability for the Continental USA.","author":"8492","description":"","caption":"","name":"wheatsuit_usa_small","status":"inherit","uploaded_to":1576042,"date":"2022-08-16 02:14:03","modified":"2022-08-16 02:18:47","menu_order":0,"mime_type":"image\/gif","type":"image","subtype":"gif","icon":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/default.png","width":640,"height":640,"sizes":{"thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/WheatSuit_USA_small-213x200.gif","thumbnail-width":213,"thumbnail-height":200,"medium":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/WheatSuit_USA_small.gif","medium-width":261,"medium-height":261,"medium_large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/WheatSuit_USA_small.gif","medium_large-width":640,"medium_large-height":640,"large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/WheatSuit_USA_small.gif","large-width":640,"large-height":640,"1536x1536":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/WheatSuit_USA_small.gif","1536x1536-width":640,"1536x1536-height":640,"2048x2048":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/WheatSuit_USA_small.gif","2048x2048-width":640,"2048x2048-height":640,"card_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/WheatSuit_USA_small-465x465.gif","card_image-width":465,"card_image-height":465,"wide_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/WheatSuit_USA_small.gif","wide_image-width":640,"wide_image-height":640}},"image_position":"center","orientation":"horizontal","hyperlink":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/07\/WheatSuit_USA_small.gif"},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":"
Food suitability forecast: Implications<\/h2>\n
"},{"ID":8492,"user_firstname":"Emily","user_lastname":"Meriam","nickname":"Emily Meriam","user_nicename":"emeriam","display_name":"Emily Meriam","user_email":"EMeriam@esri.com","user_url":"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/meriamaps\/","user_registered":"2018-10-26 16:33:49","user_description":"Emily Meriam has a diverse GIS background that spans more than two decades. Her portfolio includes mapping elephants in Thailand, wildlife poachers in the Republic of Palau, land-use issues around Yosemite National Park, and active wildfire incidents for the State of California. Since 2018, Emily has been with Esri's ArcGIS Living Atlas of the World. In this role she serves as lead Cartographer and Senior GIS Engineer for the Environment Team where she styles and designs layers, maps, and applications for the global GIS community. Outside of her professional endeavors, Emily is a passionate geographer who enjoys exploring the world with her family.","user_avatar":"
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