{"id":2804062,"date":"2025-05-23T12:00:05","date_gmt":"2025-05-23T19:00:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/?post_type=blog&p=2804062"},"modified":"2025-05-23T13:22:40","modified_gmt":"2025-05-23T20:22:40","slug":"data-engineering-for-predicting-future-events","status":"publish","type":"blog","link":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/products\/arcgis-pro\/analytics\/data-engineering-for-predicting-future-events","title":{"rendered":"Data Engineering for Predicting Future Events"},"author":334612,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_searchwp_excluded":""},"categories":[23341,22851,23351],"tags":[],"industry":[],"product":[36561],"class_list":["post-2804062","blog","type-blog","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analytics","category-national-government","category-transportation","product-arcgis-pro"],"acf":{"authors":[{"ID":334612,"user_firstname":"Catherine","user_lastname":"McSorley","nickname":"Catherine McSorley","user_nicename":"cmcsorley","display_name":"Catherine McSorley","user_email":"cmcsorley@esri.com","user_url":"","user_registered":"2023-03-06 19:01:15","user_description":"Catherine McSorley is a Product Engineer on the Spatial Statistics Team at Esri.","user_avatar":""}],"short_description":"Learn how to prepare your data to perform time-to-event predictions in ArcGIS Pro 3.5","flexible_content":[{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":"

Understanding how long critical infrastructure like bridges will remain in good condition is a key part of risk management and resource allocation. The Estimate Time to Event tool<\/a> helps us do exactly that: predict how long it will take before a bridge enters poor condition, using data and statistical modeling.<\/p>\n

This kind of analysis can be applied broadly to infrastructure lifespan forecasting, but here we\u2019ll focus specifically on bridges in the Pittsburgh area, using data from the National Bridge Inventory<\/a>.<\/p>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"image","image":{"ID":2807362,"id":2807362,"title":"Picture20","filename":"Picture20.png","filesize":862120,"url":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Picture20.png","link":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/products\/arcgis-pro\/analytics\/data-engineering-for-predicting-future-events\/picture20-6","alt":"Map of bridges in the Pittsburgh metropolitan area symbolized by current bridge condition","author":"334612","description":"","caption":"","name":"picture20-6","status":"inherit","uploaded_to":2804062,"date":"2025-05-23 20:03:45","modified":"2025-05-23 20:04:13","menu_order":0,"mime_type":"image\/png","type":"image","subtype":"png","icon":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/default.png","width":812,"height":843,"sizes":{"thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Picture20-213x200.png","thumbnail-width":213,"thumbnail-height":200,"medium":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Picture20.png","medium-width":251,"medium-height":261,"medium_large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Picture20.png","medium_large-width":768,"medium_large-height":797,"large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Picture20.png","large-width":812,"large-height":843,"1536x1536":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Picture20.png","1536x1536-width":812,"1536x1536-height":843,"2048x2048":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Picture20.png","2048x2048-width":812,"2048x2048-height":843,"card_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Picture20-448x465.png","card_image-width":448,"card_image-height":465,"wide_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Picture20.png","wide_image-width":812,"wide_image-height":843}},"image_position":"center","orientation":"horizontal","hyperlink":""},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":"

To use this tool, you first need data where the “event” has already occurred for at least some observations. For example, we need some bridges still in good condition and some already in poor condition to model how long it typically takes for deterioration to happen.<\/p>\n

To generate predictions, the Estimate Time to Event tool<\/a> requires three main inputs:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Age of each observation (how long the bridge has been in service).<\/li>\n
  2. Event indicator (whether or not the bridge has already degraded).<\/li>\n
  3. Explanatory variables (factors that might influence longevity).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

     <\/p>\n

    While the Bridge Inventory dataset provides lots of helpful data (some variables are shown in the Data Engineering<\/a> pane below), it doesn\u2019t give us these fields directly. We\u2019ll need to calculate them.<\/p>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"image","image":{"ID":2804302,"id":2804302,"title":"before_de","filename":"before_de.png","filesize":154120,"url":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/before_de.png","link":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/products\/arcgis-pro\/analytics\/data-engineering-for-predicting-future-events\/before_de","alt":"Data Engineering Pane showing variables in the dataset.","author":"334612","description":"","caption":"","name":"before_de","status":"inherit","uploaded_to":2804062,"date":"2025-05-22 20:02:05","modified":"2025-05-22 20:02:18","menu_order":0,"mime_type":"image\/png","type":"image","subtype":"png","icon":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/default.png","width":650,"height":407,"sizes":{"thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/before_de-213x200.png","thumbnail-width":213,"thumbnail-height":200,"medium":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/before_de.png","medium-width":417,"medium-height":261,"medium_large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/before_de.png","medium_large-width":650,"medium_large-height":407,"large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/before_de.png","large-width":650,"large-height":407,"1536x1536":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/before_de.png","1536x1536-width":650,"1536x1536-height":407,"2048x2048":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/before_de.png","2048x2048-width":650,"2048x2048-height":407,"card_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/before_de.png","card_image-width":650,"card_image-height":407,"wide_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/before_de.png","wide_image-width":650,"wide_image-height":407}},"image_position":"center","orientation":"horizontal","hyperlink":""},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":"

    We can create a binary “event indicator” using the Bridge Condition field. For example, if the bridge is marked as Poor, we\u2019ll classify that as a “Yes” for the event having occurred.<\/p>\n

    This transformation can be done with the Calculate Field<\/a> tool. A simple function can group condition ratings and assign a value to indicate if the bridge is in poor condition.<\/p>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"image","image":{"ID":2807392,"id":2807392,"title":"Picture18","filename":"Picture18.png","filesize":22653,"url":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Picture18.png","link":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/products\/arcgis-pro\/analytics\/data-engineering-for-predicting-future-events\/picture18-10","alt":"Calculate Field tool showing a function that assigns 1 if the Bridge is Poor, otherwise 0.","author":"334612","description":"","caption":"","name":"picture18-10","status":"inherit","uploaded_to":2804062,"date":"2025-05-23 20:05:44","modified":"2025-05-23 20:05:47","menu_order":0,"mime_type":"image\/png","type":"image","subtype":"png","icon":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/default.png","width":589,"height":337,"sizes":{"thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Picture18-213x200.png","thumbnail-width":213,"thumbnail-height":200,"medium":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Picture18.png","medium-width":456,"medium-height":261,"medium_large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Picture18.png","medium_large-width":589,"medium_large-height":337,"large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Picture18.png","large-width":589,"large-height":337,"1536x1536":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Picture18.png","1536x1536-width":589,"1536x1536-height":337,"2048x2048":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Picture18.png","2048x2048-width":589,"2048x2048-height":337,"card_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Picture18.png","card_image-width":589,"card_image-height":337,"wide_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Picture18.png","wide_image-width":589,"wide_image-height":337}},"image_position":"center","orientation":"horizontal","hyperlink":""},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":"

    This step is a bit more involved. We\u2019ll calculate a bridge\u2019s age based on available dates:<\/p>\n