{"id":807071,"date":"2020-04-15T08:02:28","date_gmt":"2020-04-15T15:02:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/?post_type=blog&#038;p=807071"},"modified":"2020-08-04T15:25:15","modified_gmt":"2020-08-04T22:25:15","slug":"covid-19-trends","status":"publish","type":"blog","link":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/products\/arcgis-living-atlas\/announcements\/covid-19-trends","title":{"rendered":"COVID-19 Trends"},"author":4351,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_searchwp_excluded":""},"categories":[37101,28211,22941],"tags":[398132,26451,575081,585551,618231],"industry":[],"product":[36581,36551,380802],"class_list":["post-807071","blog","type-blog","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-announcements","category-health","category-mapping","tag-arcgis-storymaps","tag-cartography","tag-coronavirus","tag-covid-19","tag-trends","product-arcgis-living-atlas","product-arcgis-online","product-arcgis-storymaps"],"acf":{"short_description":"For the first time, we are in a global pandemic and analyzing it as it happens. We use five trends to describe how we are doing.","flexible_content":[{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":"<p><span data-offset-key=\"4q0fo-0-0\">For the first time, we are experiencing a global pandemic and analyzing it as it happens. Using five-research based pandemic trends we describe how each country is doing. <\/span><span class=\"hardreadability\"><span data-offset-key=\"4q0fo-3-0\">To explain the trends, we created the <\/span><\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/go.esri.com\/COVID19-trends-storymap\"><span data-offset-key=\"4q0fo-4-0\"><strong>COVID-19: The First Global Pandemic of the Information Age Story Map<\/strong><\/span><\/a><span data-offset-key=\"4q0fo-5-0\">. The story also has maps showing the key aspects of each country&#8217;s situation. We will update the maps each day with the previous day of data from <a href=\"https:\/\/coronavirus.jhu.edu\/\">Johns Hopkins University<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Our motivation<\/h2>\n<p><span data-offset-key=\"l3pv-0-0\">The process to develop these trends began with learning about the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/books\/NBK143061\/\"><span data-offset-key=\"l3pv-1-0\">six phases<\/span><\/a><span data-offset-key=\"l3pv-2-0\"> of a pandemic as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO). The sixth phase is community level outbreaks occurring in two or more regions of the world. This phase describes the current situation our world is facing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>This is a good time to offer credit to Johns Hopkins University for inspiring what we did next.\u00a0Their <a href=\"https:\/\/esriurl.com\/covid19\"><span data-offset-key=\"48n4i-1-0\">Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases Dashboard<\/span><\/a>\u00a0was our inspiration and<span data-offset-key=\"48n4i-2-0\"> shows where new cases occur in countries around the world. The Johns Hopkins team makes updates as information becomes available. We took a special interest in the graphs in the lower right corner of their dashboard. These illustrate the rate at which new cases occur. These graphs show the &#8220;curves&#8221; people talk about wanting to &#8220;flatten&#8221; by slowing or stopping the spread of COVID-19.<\/span><\/p>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"image","image":{"ID":807911,"id":807911,"title":"JH_NewCasesGraph","filename":"JH_NewCasesGraph.png","filesize":4484,"url":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/JH_NewCasesGraph.png","link":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/products\/arcgis-living-atlas\/announcements\/covid-19-trends\/jh_newcasesgraph","alt":"","author":"4351","description":"","caption":"","name":"jh_newcasesgraph","status":"inherit","uploaded_to":807071,"date":"2020-04-09 18:26:24","modified":"2020-04-09 18:26:24","menu_order":0,"mime_type":"image\/png","type":"image","subtype":"png","icon":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/default.png","width":502,"height":282,"sizes":{"thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/JH_NewCasesGraph-213x200.png","thumbnail-width":213,"thumbnail-height":200,"medium":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/JH_NewCasesGraph.png","medium-width":464,"medium-height":261,"medium_large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/JH_NewCasesGraph.png","medium_large-width":502,"medium_large-height":282,"large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/JH_NewCasesGraph.png","large-width":502,"large-height":282,"1536x1536":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/JH_NewCasesGraph.png","1536x1536-width":502,"1536x1536-height":282,"2048x2048":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/JH_NewCasesGraph.png","2048x2048-width":502,"2048x2048-height":282,"card_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/JH_NewCasesGraph.png","card_image-width":502,"card_image-height":282,"wide_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/JH_NewCasesGraph.png","wide_image-width":502,"wide_image-height":282}},"image_position":"right","orientation":"horizontal","hyperlink":"https:\/\/esriurl.com\/covid19"},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":"<div data-block=\"true\" data-editor=\"508oi\" data-offset-key=\"f712b-0-0\">\n<div class=\"public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr\" data-offset-key=\"f712b-0-0\"><span data-offset-key=\"f712b-0-0\">Historically, analysts would create such graphs after a pandemic ends. Then they would split the graphs into pre- and post-peak to develop narratives for what occurred. Fast forward to a world with near-real-time data updates for COVID-19, and these graphs are able to provide new insights with every update. Listening to experts explain the recent changes led to the idea to interpret the curves as trends.\u00a0<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>The five trends<\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"hardreadability\"><span data-offset-key=\"5kif8-3-0\">We defined these trends using the number of new cases each day, but found we also needed the number of cases per 100,000 people in each country<\/span><\/span><span data-offset-key=\"5kif8-4-0\">. Thus, we used <a href=\"https:\/\/population.un.org\/wup\/\">estimates for 2020 population from the U.N. World Urbanization Prospects<\/a> with the COVID-19 data to calculate the rate of cases in each country.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>This example graph shows the five trends:<\/p>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"image","image":{"ID":807341,"id":807341,"title":"COVID-19 Trends","filename":"COVID19SampleTrendGraph_banner.png","filesize":34796,"url":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/COVID19SampleTrendGraph_banner.png","link":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/products\/arcgis-living-atlas\/announcements\/covid-19-trends\/covid19sampletrendgraph_banner","alt":"","author":"4351","description":"","caption":"Illustrates the trends for the COVID-19 pandemic","name":"covid19sampletrendgraph_banner","status":"inherit","uploaded_to":807071,"date":"2020-04-09 17:23:04","modified":"2020-04-09 17:55:05","menu_order":0,"mime_type":"image\/png","type":"image","subtype":"png","icon":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/default.png","width":824,"height":350,"sizes":{"thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/COVID19SampleTrendGraph_banner-213x200.png","thumbnail-width":213,"thumbnail-height":200,"medium":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/COVID19SampleTrendGraph_banner.png","medium-width":464,"medium-height":197,"medium_large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/COVID19SampleTrendGraph_banner.png","medium_large-width":768,"medium_large-height":326,"large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/COVID19SampleTrendGraph_banner.png","large-width":824,"large-height":350,"1536x1536":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/COVID19SampleTrendGraph_banner.png","1536x1536-width":824,"1536x1536-height":350,"2048x2048":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/COVID19SampleTrendGraph_banner.png","2048x2048-width":824,"2048x2048-height":350,"card_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/COVID19SampleTrendGraph_banner.png","card_image-width":824,"card_image-height":350,"wide_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/COVID19SampleTrendGraph_banner.png","wide_image-width":824,"wide_image-height":350}},"image_position":"center","orientation":"horizontal","hyperlink":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/COVID19SampleTrendGraph_large.png"},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":"<ul>\n<li><strong>Emergent<\/strong>: Early stages of outbreak.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Spreading<\/strong>: Early stages and depending on an administrative area\u2019s capacity, this may represent a manageable rate of spread.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Epidemic<\/strong>: Uncontrolled spread.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Controlled<\/strong>: Average less than 0.5 new cases per 100,000 people for 21 days.<\/li>\n<li><strong>End\u00a0Stage:<\/strong> Average less than one new case every five days for 42 days.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>We chose to call these &#8220;trends&#8221; because there is not enough data to explain or defend a more confident designation such as &#8220;Stage&#8221; or &#8220;Phase.&#8221; Ideally, we would know how many people have been tested, the rates of positive tests, and the number of locales experiencing outbreaks within each country.<\/p>\n<p>We have released <span class=\"hardreadability\"><span data-offset-key=\"4q0fo-3-0\">the <\/span><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/go.esri.com\/COVID19-trends-storymap\"><span data-offset-key=\"4q0fo-4-0\">COVID-19: The First Global Pandemic of the Information Age Story Map<\/span><\/a> to tell the story of these trends. These maps, updated daily from Johns Hopkins data, contextualize and describe the most recent trends of the COVID-19 global pandemic in each country. As you explore the maps, click on a country to learn specifics about its current trend.<\/p>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"image","image":{"ID":815191,"id":815191,"title":"COVID-19 - The First Global Pandemic of the Information Age","filename":"COVID-19-The-First-Global-Pandemic-of-the-Information-Age.png","filesize":221277,"url":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/COVID-19-The-First-Global-Pandemic-of-the-Information-Age.png","link":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/products\/arcgis-living-atlas\/announcements\/covid-19-trends\/covid-19-the-first-global-pandemic-of-the-information-age","alt":"","author":"4161","description":"","caption":"","name":"covid-19-the-first-global-pandemic-of-the-information-age","status":"inherit","uploaded_to":807071,"date":"2020-04-14 03:36:06","modified":"2020-04-14 03:36:06","menu_order":0,"mime_type":"image\/png","type":"image","subtype":"png","icon":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/default.png","width":1535,"height":955,"sizes":{"thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/COVID-19-The-First-Global-Pandemic-of-the-Information-Age-213x200.png","thumbnail-width":213,"thumbnail-height":200,"medium":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/COVID-19-The-First-Global-Pandemic-of-the-Information-Age.png","medium-width":420,"medium-height":261,"medium_large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/COVID-19-The-First-Global-Pandemic-of-the-Information-Age.png","medium_large-width":768,"medium_large-height":478,"large":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/COVID-19-The-First-Global-Pandemic-of-the-Information-Age.png","large-width":1535,"large-height":955,"1536x1536":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/COVID-19-The-First-Global-Pandemic-of-the-Information-Age.png","1536x1536-width":1535,"1536x1536-height":955,"2048x2048":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/COVID-19-The-First-Global-Pandemic-of-the-Information-Age.png","2048x2048-width":1535,"2048x2048-height":955,"card_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/COVID-19-The-First-Global-Pandemic-of-the-Information-Age-747x465.png","card_image-width":747,"card_image-height":465,"wide_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/COVID-19-The-First-Global-Pandemic-of-the-Information-Age.png","wide_image-width":1535,"wide_image-height":955}},"image_position":"center","orientation":"horizontal","hyperlink":"https:\/\/go.esri.com\/COVID19-trends-storymap"},{"acf_fc_layout":"content","content":"<p>We hope that this information is both interesting and useful to individuals, businesses and governments who wish to track the evolving pandemic and make decisions about next actions.<\/p>\n<p>For those interested in the methodology we developed for determining each country&#8217;s trend, we include it as the <a href=\"https:\/\/go.esri.com\/COVID19-trends-methodology\">description for the web map<\/a> we used in the story map.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n"}],"authors":[{"ID":4351,"user_firstname":"Charlie","user_lastname":"Frye","nickname":"Charlie Frye","user_nicename":"cfrye","display_name":"Charlie Frye","user_email":"cfrye@esri.com","user_url":"","user_registered":"2018-03-02 00:15:58","user_description":"I am the Chief Cartographer at Esri and work on the Living Atlas Team. I have been with Esri in Software Products since 1994. I specialize in GIS engineering and information product design. I am the author of many global scientific and thematic layers on topics that include ecosystems, landforms, population, climate, emissions, etc.  Contact me at cfrye@esri.com with questions or feedback.","user_avatar":"<img data-del=\"avatar\" src='https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2018\/04\/CF_R3.png' class='avatar pp-user-avatar avatar-96 photo ' height='96' width='96'\/>"},{"ID":15571,"user_firstname":"Estella","user_lastname":"Geraghty","nickname":"EGeraghty","user_nicename":"egeraghty","display_name":"Este Geraghty","user_email":"EGeraghty@esri.com","user_url":"https:\/\/esri.com\/health","user_registered":"2020-03-09 23:26:02","user_description":"Este Geraghty, MD, MS, MPH, CPH, GISP is the Chief Medical Officer at Esri, developer of the world\u2019s most powerful mapping and analytics platform. She heads Esri's worldwide health and human services practice and is passionate about transforming health organizations through a geographic approach. Previously, she was the deputy director of the Center for Health Statistics and Informatics at the California Department of Public Health. There she engaged in statewide initiatives in meaningful use, health information exchange, open data and interoperability. While serving as an associate professor of clinical internal medicine at the University of California (UC), Davis she conducted research on geographic approaches to influencing health policy and advancing community development programs. Geraghty is the author of numerous health and GIS peer reviewed papers and book chapters. She has lectured extensively around the world on a broad range of topics that include social determinants of health, open data, climate change, homelessness, access to care, opioid addiction, privacy issues and public health preparedness. She received her medical degree, master's degree in health informatics, and master's degree in public health from UC Davis. She is board certified in public health (CPH) and is also a geographic information system professional (GISP).","user_avatar":"<img data-del=\"avatar\" src='https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2022\/08\/220208_EsteGeraghty_05-213x200.jpg' class='avatar pp-user-avatar avatar-96 photo ' height='96' width='96'\/>"}],"related_articles":"","card_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Covid19Trends_Card.jpg","wide_image":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/app\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Covid19TrendsBannerFull7.png"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.9 (Yoast SEO v25.9) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>COVID-19 Trends<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"For the first time, we are experiencing a global pandemic and analyzing it as it happens. We found five trends to describe how each country is doing.\u00a0To explain the trends, we created\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/products\/arcgis-living-atlas\/announcements\/covid-19-trends\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"COVID-19 Trends Story Map\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"For the first time, we are in a global pandemic and analyzing it as it happens. 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