{"id":446552,"date":"2023-03-14T09:35:10","date_gmt":"2023-03-14T09:35:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uat.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/?post_type=blog&#038;p=446552"},"modified":"2023-11-14T00:38:39","modified_gmt":"2023-11-14T00:38:39","slug":"forecasting-the-impact-of-flood","status":"publish","type":"blog","link":"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/articles\/forecasting-the-impact-of-flood","title":{"rendered":"Forecasting the Impact of Flood"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-overview-of-the-flood-forecasting-process\">Overview of the Flood Forecasting Process<\/h2>\n\n<p class=\"undefined block-editor-paragraph wp-block-paragraph\">Every year, millions of people across the globe are affected by riverine flooding, and the extent, occurrence, and socioeconomic effects of catastrophic flooding seem to be on the rise due to climate change, greatly aggravating the impact this phenomenon is having around the world\u2014as witnessed by the extraordinary flooding in Pakistan (2022), Yellowstone (2022), Guyana (2022), Brazil (2023), and Mozambique (2023).<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"undefined block-editor-paragraph wp-block-paragraph\">Can we do a better job of predicting where flooding will occur and who will be impacted? Fortunately, we can, thanks to recent advances in GIS technology, water modeling, and data availability. Today, ArcGIS users have access to the basic tools and datasets required for forecasting the potential extent and the impacts of flooding for any place on earth\u2014potentially saving lives and helping prevent damage to property.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"undefined block-editor-paragraph wp-block-paragraph\">The basic steps to forecast flood impacts are outlined below:<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"353\" src=\"https:\/\/uat.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Methodology_w-1024x353.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-446862\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/app\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Methodology_w-1024x353.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/app\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Methodology_w-300x104.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/app\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Methodology_w-768x265.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/app\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Methodology_w-1536x530.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/app\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Methodology_w.jpg 1918w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"undefined block-editor-paragraph wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>first step<\/strong> is to identify the datasets to be leveraged for producing flood forecasts, such as digital elevation models (DEMs), impact layers, and river flow forecasts. In this blog post, we discuss the use of the following publicly available datasets:<\/p>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>DEM\u2014<\/strong>NHDPlus (US coverage, 10-meter resolution) or HydroSHEDS (global coverage, 90-meter resolution).<\/li>\n\n<li><strong>River Flow\u2014<\/strong>US National Water Model (NWM) Short-Range River Flow Forecast (US coverage) or the GEOGloWS river flow forecast (global coverage).<\/li>\n\n<li><strong>Impact layers\u2014<\/strong>These can vary, but they will normally include variables such as addresses, key infrastructure, population density, and crops. Some of the data is available in Esri&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/livingatlas.arcgis.com\/en\/home\/\">ArcGIS Living Atlas of the World<\/a> and can be extracted from OpenStreetMaps or other sources.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"618\" height=\"301\" src=\"https:\/\/uat.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Living-Atlas.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-446562\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/app\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Living-Atlas.png 618w, https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/app\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Living-Atlas-300x146.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 618px) 100vw, 618px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Living Atlas National Water Model River Flow Forecasting Viewer<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<p class=\"undefined block-editor-paragraph wp-block-paragraph\">Using commercial data\u2014or higher-resolution data not available to the public\u2014can improve forecasting results.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"undefined block-editor-paragraph wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>second step<\/strong> is to precalculate the extent and depth of flooding for incremental depths (e.g., 1 to 20 meters) using the DEM selected, as shown below:<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"469\" src=\"https:\/\/uat.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Incremental-Depths_w-1024x469.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-446872\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/app\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Incremental-Depths_w-1024x469.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/app\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Incremental-Depths_w-300x137.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/app\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Incremental-Depths_w-768x352.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/app\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Incremental-Depths_w-1536x704.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/app\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Incremental-Depths_w.jpg 1919w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"undefined block-editor-paragraph wp-block-paragraph\">Once the possible inundation extents are precalculated for each depth, they are overlaid on the impact layers to estimate impact by flooding depth, as shown below:<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"469\" src=\"https:\/\/uat.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Extent-and-Impact-rating_w-1024x469.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-446882\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/app\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Extent-and-Impact-rating_w-1024x469.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/app\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Extent-and-Impact-rating_w-300x137.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/app\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Extent-and-Impact-rating_w-768x352.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/app\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Extent-and-Impact-rating_w-1536x704.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/app\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Extent-and-Impact-rating_w.jpg 1919w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"undefined block-editor-paragraph wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>third step<\/strong> is to convert forecasted river flow to potential flooding. Normally, this entails setting up a geoprocessing service that does the conversion at set intervals throughout the day.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"undefined block-editor-paragraph wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>final step<\/strong> is to disseminate the forecasting results. This can be achieved by configuring maps and apps, such as map viewers or dashboards.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"undefined block-editor-paragraph wp-block-paragraph\">To illustrate this step, one of the outcomes could be a dashboard showing an area of interest, and for one-meter depth of flooding forecasted in eight hours, showing that 120 buildings, 50,000 people, and 350 acres of prime agricultural areas will be impacted.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"undefined block-editor-paragraph wp-block-paragraph\">Federal and state agencies in the US have recently tested the approach outlined above to<\/p>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Analyze flood forecasting model sensitivity in Yellowstone.<\/li>\n\n<li>Evaluate flood impacts in Guyana.<\/li>\n\n<li>Estimate flood impacts and trends over time in Texas.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<p class=\"undefined block-editor-paragraph wp-block-paragraph\">Globally, ArcGIS users are tapping into these technologies to implement disaster monitoring apps. Esri recently completed a proof-of-concept for a regional agency in Africa where dashboards were developed to forecast the impact of flooding to infrastructure, population, and crops. <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"undefined block-editor-paragraph wp-block-paragraph\">The methodology outlined &#8211; together with recent ArcGIS solutions developed by Esri and customers to assist first responders to estimate flood extents in the field &#8211; is being applied across several industries, from local governments, insurance, and transportation to agriculture, economic development, and dam operations. <\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-getting-started\">Getting Started<\/h2>\n\n<p class=\"undefined block-editor-paragraph wp-block-paragraph\">All the modeling and analysis described herein can be done with ArcGIS Pro, leveraging the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/water-resources\/arc-hydro\">Arc Hydro<\/a> toolset (freely available with an ArcGIS Pro license) and publicly available datasets. A high-level overview of a potential solution design is shown below:<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/uat.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Solution-Design_w-2-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-446912\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/app\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Solution-Design_w-2-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/app\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Solution-Design_w-2-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/app\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Solution-Design_w-2-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/app\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Solution-Design_w-2-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/blog\/app\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Solution-Design_w-2.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"undefined block-editor-paragraph wp-block-paragraph\">ArcGIS users around the world can benefit from recent advances in GIS workflows, modeling, and public data to forecast the impact of flooding in ways that were not possible just 5 or 10 years ago. Hopefully, this translates into improved flood management and, down the line, lives saved and a reduction on property damage.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"undefined block-editor-paragraph wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Learn more:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/arcgis\/products\/arcgis-pro\/overview\">ArcGIS Pro<\/a><\/li>\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/water-resources\/arc-hydro\">Arc Hydro<\/a><\/li>\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/livingatlas.arcgis.com\/en\/home\/\">Living Atlas of the World<\/a><\/li>\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/arcgis-blog\/products\/arcgis-desktop\/water\/arcgis-living-atlas-of-the-world-layers-for-water-resources\/\">Living Atlas\u2014Water Resources Layers<\/a><\/li>\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/water.noaa.gov\/about\/nwm#:~:text=The%20National%20Water%20Model%20(NWM,and%20how%20they%20fit%20together.\">National Water Model<\/a><\/li>\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.usgs.gov\/national-hydrography\/nhdplus-high-resolution\">NHDPlus High Resolution<\/a><\/li>\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/geoglows.ecmwf.int\/\">GEOGloWS<\/a><\/li>\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.hydrosheds.org\/\">HydroSHEDS<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<h2 class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-stay-connected-with-esri-s-water-team\">Stay Connected with Esri&#8217;s Water Team<\/h2>\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center block-editor-paragraph wp-block-paragraph\">ArcGIS is a modern spatial system that provides you with solutions that meet your needs to monitor and assess conditions, perform research, and deliver information. ArcGIS provides scientific information to water resource managers, planners, and stakeholders and allows the community to engage, collaborate, and share with easy-to-use maps and apps.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center block-editor-paragraph wp-block-paragraph\">Visit the Esri Water Resources <a href=\"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/water-resources\/overview\">website<\/a> for more information.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center block-editor-paragraph wp-block-paragraph\">Join the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/community.esri.com\/t5\/water-resources\/ct-p\/water-resources\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Water Resources community<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center block-editor-paragraph wp-block-paragraph\">Follow #EsriWater on social media:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/EsriWater\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Twitter&nbsp;<\/a>|&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/groups\/6533227\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">LinkedIn<\/a><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center block-editor-paragraph wp-block-paragraph\">Subscribe to the water industry newsletter, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.esri.com\/en-us\/industries\/water\/water-news\"><em>Esri News for Water Utilities and Water Resources<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":131,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[3872],"tags":[3922,971,3902,3912,421],"class_list":["post-446552","blog","type-blog","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-water-resources","tag-analysis","tag-arc-hydro","tag-flood-forecasting","tag-flood-impact","tag-water-resources","industry-water-resources"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.9 (Yoast SEO v25.9) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Forecasting the Impact of 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