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Summer 2004
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Announcing 2004/2009 Forecasts From Esri Business Information Solutions

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The 2004/2009 data updates will be featured in the reports on Business Analyst Online.

The 2004/2009 data updates from Esri Business Information Solutions (Esri BIS) incorporate recent changes in U.S. geography including the latest metropolitan area revisions, new Core Based Statistical Areas, or CBSAs, as well as data from the newly incorporated Broomfield County in Colorado. These data updates also reflect significant events in the marketplace, including the effects of economic recovery nationwide and the coming of age of Generation Y.

The Esri BIS data development team recalibrated its models to include the latest metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas that were released by the Office of Management and Budget in February 2004. Based on changes in Colorado and Virginia, all databases were restructured from the block level up, and all data for 1990 and 2000 was revised for the affected areas.

Among the updated 2004/2009 data are forecasts of population and income that include age by sex; race; households and families; labor force and employment status; and income, including household and family income distributions, household income by age of householder, and per capita income. Updates of household income are also extended to provide after-tax (disposable) income and net worth, a measure of household wealth. Housing forecasts include occupancy, tenure, and home value.

Data from the 2004/2009 data updates reveals new trends that can be used by companies, government agencies, and organizations to better serve and understand market areas. For example, these updates show that household income increased by more than 3 percent in the past year—a slight (0.1 percentage point) improvement over the previous year. This change is inconsistent with a growth rate of 4.5 percent among the highest income households compared to only 3.2 percent among lower income households.

Despite the sluggish growth in household income, the housing market remains robust. Low interest rates, innovative financing programs, and government incentive and assistance programs have pushed up the median home value from $112,000 in 2000 to almost $146,000 in 2004 and boosted the home ownership rate to more than 67 percent in 2004. However, this fast pace of growth in home ownership is unlikely to continue for the remainder of the decade.

The next wave of new homeowners will be "Gen Ys," who are just now maturing into their household formation years. This generation rivals the baby boomers in size, but not composition. Gen Y includes not only the children of baby boomers but also waves of recent immigrants to the United States. The group is more diverse than the baby boomers—and not as predictable.

Demographically, the effects of the echo boom are evident in the age distribution of the population, too. The increase in the median age, which has followed the aging of the baby boom cohorts for years, has either slowed or reversed in most areas. Although some states boast a median age of more than 40 years, many areas are now experiencing a distinct increase in their younger populations. This trend is likely to continue. As the echo effect of the baby boom wanes, births are still increasing in the United States with younger families arriving.

The 2004/2009 updated data will be available in the Business Analyst suite of products, including Business Analyst Online and Business Analyst desktop software on the ArcView and ArcGIS platforms. In addition, the updates will be available in the following products:

  • Community Coder—geocoding software
  • Portfolio Allocate—data retrieval software
  • Portfolio Solocast—segmentation analysis software
  • Community Sourcebook for ZIP Code Demographics, 18th edition—demographic data reference tool for U.S. ZIP Codes
  • Community Sourcebook for County Demographics, 16th edition—demographic data reference tool for U.S. counties
  • Community Sourcebook·America With ArcReader—digital atlas with query, sort, report, and map display software

For more information about the 2004/2009 demographic data updates, call 1-800-292-2224 or visit www.esribis.com/data.

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